Cryptomarket Letters

After a disappointing week which BTC broke 6.200 usd support and almost rushed to 3.500 usd levels quickly and threw away my thesis about market not falling any further, we are now looking for a new solid bottom.

It is quite interesting when I look back during the 20.000 run ,I remember I was trading BTC and I got pissed when I sold my BTCs around 3.500 levels and never been able to buy back till 8.000. I was pissed off ,as my trading channel didn’t work. While I was watching BTC running up and up each day. During that run up ,there was a fake profit taking till 5.500 usd, just for 15 minutes .I was at a restaurant and I saw that it traded 5.500 and glad that I insisted not buying back but it was a fake profit taking and prices recovered in like 15 minutes and that rally went on. So I wasn’t able to buy my BTCs when I got back home from that restaurant.

Afterwards , I couldn’t resist the FOMO and bought back at 8.000 usd.

Anyway , I remember those days that how sure I was that it was gonna trade 3K ish again.

It did! After hitting 20.000!

With the markets and life is that no one can see whats going to happen.There are only probabilities. My premature bottom call was a probability. A thesis. A thesis falsified by market. Like Mike Novograts or some other experts I was too enthusiastic about the market. The thing was that, if we could have bottomed there, the mood of the Crypto community could have been much strong and we could have reached ATH sooner that we can now. It will take more time for the sentiment to get stronger now.

One thing to mention though, I noticed there was a XRP hype, during this last fall of BTC. That signed me as if, the market’s concern is much more on Governments and Regulatory Bodies’ attitude.

There are some important use cases of cyrptocurrencies. But the perception of cryptocurrencies might be shifting from “ a revolution that will shake out the old system” into something like “ old system adapting itself to cyrpto tech”.

Another major point that I like to mention is kind of negative.

We are watching a lack of investment appetite. Though we have reached very attractive levels, in a very short period of time. There is a huge lack of investment interest to crypto. RSI and almost every indicator points to a very very oversold market and still we don’ t see any 1.000+ upside momentum days with good volume.

As I have previously mentioned and stupidly haven’t included in my bottom calling judgement is that bear markets tends to end with a exhaustive sell-offs. ( highlighted part https://medium.com/@barszen/some-thoughts-on-a-bear-market-289a97fb0152) Always! And exhaustive sell of is kind of sell-off that we have just experienced but is followed through a strong buying with high volume. Though we have seen that sell-off , we didn’t see the follow up strong buying.

Investor sentiment , measured in many websites also share the lack of interest idea.

But the wild sell of must have been scared most of the new investors. The old peeps are mainly Bitcoin maximalists so even though they believe BTC will survive, they also believe most of the altcoins will not.

I personally, find this proposition as a self fulfilling prophecy , as as most of the altcoins , especially if they don’t have any working product need constant funding.If you spread the word that they won’t be able to survive, then will probably not be getting the funding they needed and will eventually die.

On the other hand, there are also good news coming.

Ohio, started accepting Bitcoin for tax payments!

That is a huge positive sign.

Also, what we are missing in terms of investor appetite might be filled with Bakt, coming very soon.

hope we find our bottom soon.

I think it is gonna be a long and suffering journey going back to all time highs.

Till then , we only have ourselves to support and to hodl

In the mean time,

one possible scenario could be this

The squeeze for the 3 months period is in play,

The 2.target of 4045 has been achieved.

Now the actual target of 2,200 is inplay.

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